Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 17.913324 21.643467 25.780482 30.684446 36.313200 42.545825 49.942096
2025-05-11 12.600227 17.480274 23.482652 31.297521 41.082842 52.805169 67.772168
2025-05-18 9.357232 14.522990 21.418942 31.060013 43.924502 60.215980 82.085669
2025-05-25 6.995156 12.041534 19.294575 30.084664 45.277955 65.419796 93.571756
2025-06-01 5.495499 10.404507 17.944936 29.787670 47.243863 71.284035 106.010725
2025-06-08 4.182759 8.733261 16.206831 28.584754 47.645920 74.850970 115.363250
2025-06-15 3.567513 8.084847 15.923127 29.469105 51.057340 82.729608 130.998312
2025-06-22 2.796007 6.962490 14.654195 28.584171 51.622850 86.428083 140.777091
2025-06-29 2.443078 6.568638 14.571276 29.604350 55.184940 94.696805 157.528602
2025-07-06 1.837008 5.482312 13.035642 27.917433 54.179924 95.897042 163.761686
2025-07-13 1.625054 5.225977 13.040884 28.950299 57.725288 104.294706 181.198960
2025-07-20 1.423227 4.940288 12.936740 29.750436 60.898450 112.224296 198.210137
2025-07-27 1.229603 4.655939 12.861722 30.738015 64.723978 121.816196 218.933699
2025-08-03 1.033855 4.308562 12.603725 31.365156 68.010721 130.806751 239.307999
2025-08-10 0.824360 3.837114 11.966317 31.127890 69.668027 137.133554 255.654621
2025-08-17 0.623317 3.297269 11.043704 30.150851 69.817157 140.851180 267.851120
2025-08-24 0.491499 2.932139 10.476479 29.853332 71.210956 146.747046 283.847232
2025-08-31 0.358933 2.481722 9.569448 28.648273 70.679035 149.168513 294.050380
2025-09-07 0.308832 2.359062 9.559436 29.534201 74.428309 159.438726 318.009742
2025-09-14 0.228289 2.031536 8.858743 28.647689 74.421273 162.828778 330.195635
2025-09-21 0.198855 1.954004 8.921039 29.669687 78.511080 173.977294 356.319478
2025-09-28 0.133866 1.602030 7.983535 27.979755 76.600630 173.739575 362.301472
2025-10-05 0.116740 1.549219 8.067876 29.014471 80.758466 185.237677 389.630510